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  #1  
Old 12-13-2017, 12:45 AM
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Default AP calls the AL race for doug jones

i yield to salah's superior understanding of the AL electorate and politics, but doug jones's victory over roy moore is an extraordinary accomplishment.
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Old 12-13-2017, 12:49 AM
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Moore refuses to concede; seeks recount despite significant margin of loss here. Link

My initial take is national attention pushed up voter turnout for Jones supporters, while the accusations against Moore depressed turnout by GOP strongholds. I'm not seeing numbers to indicate a significant flip of red to blue in any broad sense. This was a limited repudiation of a particular individual.
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Old 12-13-2017, 01:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Archaelos View Post
Moore refuses to concede; seeks recount despite significant margin of loss here. Link

My initial take is national attention pushed up voter turnout for Jones supporters, while the accusations against Moore depressed turnout by GOP strongholds. I'm not seeing numbers to indicate a significant flip of red to blue in any broad sense. This was a limited repudiation of a particular individual.
I agree with this assessment but also, I'll take it, y'know?
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Old 12-13-2017, 10:19 AM
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i'm still processing this analysis by nate silver.
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Old 12-13-2017, 10:53 AM
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Doug Jones has this seat for two years because he's not Roy Moore. Unless Republicans nominate another Roy Moore, they can easily retake the seat.
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Old 12-13-2017, 12:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Salah_ad_Din View Post
Doug Jones has this seat for two years because he's not Roy Moore. Unless Republicans nominate another Roy Moore, they can easily retake the seat.
I think the amount of antipathy for Trump might not make this a gimme even in AL. Assuming Lord Citrus is out of the picture by 2026 I think it'll be a gimme then.
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Old 12-13-2017, 01:02 PM
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At the rate Trump is going who knows if he will be around in two years

Roy Moore lost . . . But the voters somehow picked him over Strange or any other fruitbat available for the Republicans

I just hope Doug Jones doesn't send us plunging to Gun Control O'Rama

I do hope he help pull some Pro Choice rabbits out of hats while he's at it
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Old 12-17-2017, 04:34 PM
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The Silver article had this, which I thought was interesting:

Of course, Republicans won’t have Roy Moore running in other races. But they will have other candidates with characteristics similar to Moore (ignoring, for now, the sexual misconduct allegations). That is, they’ll have candidates who are nominated by the GOP base against the wishes of party elites and who prove to be disasters with swing voters. There could be more of them in 2018, especially with Steve Bannon targeting “establishment” Republicans in almost every Senate race. Republicans have had plenty of these over past election cycles, such as Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock in 2012 and Sharron Angle, Christine O’Donnell and Ken Buck in 2010. If not for these candidates, Republicans might have somewhere in the neighborhood of 55 Senate seats instead of being down to 51.

I think both parties need to worry about this. While there is no doubt that the alt-right is far more an immoral entity than the progressive left, I have very little doubt that swing voters would support a moderate right candidate (Marco Rubio, Susan Collins) over a Liz Warren. In the same way, it took a candidate who was thought by many to be unelectable to lose to Trump. Seriously, any Moderate Democrat, (Biden, Warner, Leahy) wins that election.

My concern is that the two party system creates real problems when it pushes to the extremes. Trump will hopefully look like a bad glitch in 20 years, but I'm really worried that he's really going to end up looking like a signpost. Because nearly half the voters in AL liked Roy Moore specifically because of his drawbacks; his theocratic ignorance of the constitution, his racism, etc. It really took the fact that he's a damned pedophile to scare people away from him.

And I've largely given up hope that people are willing to look outside to a third party. If the candidates were Hitler and Stalin, people would still say voting for a third party was a wasted vote.
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  #9  
Old 12-17-2017, 04:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Salah_ad_Din View Post
Doug Jones has this seat for two years because he's not Roy Moore. Unless Republicans nominate another Roy Moore, they can easily retake the seat.
If I recall correctly, Jeff Sessions won his seat in Alabama with something like 97% of the vote.

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Originally Posted by Archaelos View Post
I'm not seeing numbers to indicate a significant flip of red to blue in any broad sense. This was a limited repudiation of a particular individual.
I agree.
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